September 28, 2004

Crappy presidents, overpriced houses and pretty graphs

For those of you that don't know, the Iowa Electronic Markets is one of the best predictors of the outcomes of political elections around. The IEM is a futures market that was founded in 1988 to test the predictive ability of markets by allowing people to trade real-money contracts that pay-off based on the results of elections or other events. History has shown the market to be extremely accurate. Have a look at the current quotes on Bush and Kerry contracts:

Needless to say, things aren't looking good for the Kerry campaign. The only thing, in my opinion, that could change the momentum of the campaign is a resounding success for Kerry at the debates. I hope all of you weenies out there that voted for Kerry over Dean in the primaries are proud of yourselves.

In other news, you may be able to soothe some of the Bush '04 sting with a non-insanely priced house. The Economist, which is rarely wrong, has been publishing articles about the "housing bubble" for about two years now. In a recent article they give some of the most compelling evidence to date that housing prices are headed for a big correction, if not a crash. Namely, the ratios of house prices to rents and incomes are at a staggering all-time high. Price to income is an obvious statistic but price to rent is extremely important as well since people can choose to rent over buying if the disparity in price is too great. Have a look for yourself:

Here's hoping for a bear market in housing and incumbent presidents.

Posted by dr_v at September 28, 2004 02:16 AM

the bush camp and their talk radio mouthpieces have been furiously downplaying bush's anticipated performance in the debates, hoping that people won't be completely stunned when he gets his ass kicked by kerry (who is unanimously considered an extremely skilled debater). i'm just hoping that bush makes an extremely unfortunate gaffe, like dropping an accidental N-bomb or something.

but the housing news is good, since meli and i will be looking to buy relatively soon.

Posted by: holohan on September 28, 2004 06:49 AM

Aaron has mentioned this to me before; about how the housing market is going to crash and how 4 more years of the Bush bullshit may help in bringing about the seemingly inevitable crash. Although I've criticized him, saying it's selfish to wish for 4 more "W" years so we can get real good deal on a nice Bay Area house, now that it seems sickeningly hopeless that Kerry will win the popular vote and I have the sneaking suspicion that Bush will somehow manufacture another artificial win, this doesn't seem like such a bad position to take. By the time I graduate from law school, Bush will be well into his 2nd term and the crash should be in full swing. Providing that I can find a good job, Aaron and I should be able to take advantage of the low housing prices, increased unemployment rates and dropping salaries in the Bay Area. He, and Ebay employee, and me, an attorney, will be relative financial powerhouses at our young age, living the American dream in our South Bay condo with a shared swimming pool and central air/heating. Thank you G.W., for your future further fucking of our nation, and making me a 1st-time homeowner.

Posted by: Kristina on September 28, 2004 02:06 PM

The South Bay is not so bad. I still have a bunch of go-kart tickets left.

Posted by: sean on September 28, 2004 06:15 PM

Since the Presidential debate where, according the the Gallup Poll, Kerry clearly won over Bush 53% to 37% (1% "neither" and 8% "both/equally"), Kerry's stock has been soaring and Bush's has been tanking. I'd like to note that one usually says such thing metaphorically (although there is a concrete truth-test for such statements), but the Iowa Electronic Markets makes it real.

Posted by: Kristina on October 2, 2004 10:02 AM